Tuesday, February 17, 2009
E.K. NATION'S OSCAR PREDICTIONS GASOLINE FIRE
This is a very worrisome year for me.
The Best Picture Oscar will go to a film that is not good. The last time the Academy got the Best Picture correct was 1993, when it rightfully awarded the Oscar to Schindler's List. Since then, it has continually misfired. I know it's tough to judge something as unquantifiable as films and acting and whatnot, but you'd think that 15 years would not pass between giving the top honors to the film that truly deserved it. Or even a film that deserved it.
Last year's Best Picture winner -- and I think the Oscars are losing enough relevance that not too many people will remember -- was No Country For Old Men, admittedly a great film, I thought. But the truly best film of last year, the Irish indie/musical Once, wasn't even nominated. The year before that, The Departed won, yet I felt United 93 was even better, and I suspect that of those who have seen Pan's Labyrinth -- I am not one of them yet -- many were probably wondering how that one didn't win. And so on, and so forth.
Now here we are in the year of The Curious Case of Benjamin Button and Slumdog Millionaire, which garnered 13 and 10 nominations respectively. Button is not a good film, but it still deserves some awards. Millionaire is a bad film and deserves nothing. Grouped with them are Milk, which I have seen and is a very good film, and The Reader and Frost/Nixon, neither of which I have seen and I suspect I will probably miss out on them prior to Sunday's ceremony.
Slumdog Millionaire is a rags-to-riches story, in its storytelling and I suppose in its production; it's an Indian film that seems an unlikely choice as any film ever to have picked up a Best Picture nomination. Many people like it, and I'm happy for them. I, for one, thought it sucked. The characters are boring, save for the game show host, who is entertainingly creepy, and possibly the girl, the fate of whom really is interesting only when she has disappeared from the story. I can sort of deal with the story's going back-and-forth between the life story of the kids and the Who Wants To Be A Millionaire? portion, at least as a way of telling the story, but it just seemed a bit cheesy. And the main character's last question is wrapped up a bit too neatly, not in the subject matter but in the way the question was phrased. I suppose you'd have to have seen the film to know what I am talking about, but trust me, it rang completely false. And the inexplicable dance sequence over the closing credits. Ridiculous.
Since Benjamin Button is sort of getting some backlash, what with its copycatted Forrest Gump-ish plotline -- the same guy wrote both screenplays -- it seems like that one won't win. And the other three just don't have the feel about them. So for Best Picture I hereby regretfully declare that Slumdog Millionaire is your winner. And Danny Boyle is almost certainly going to win Best Director, since he won the DIrector's Guild award, and usually when that happens, the same person wins the Oscar.
Let's get the cinches out of the way: Kate Winslet will probably win Best Actress for The Reader, if only because this is already her sixth nomination and she hasn't won yet, and people seemed to like her also in Revolutionary Road (which I have not seen). This is not to say that any of the other nominees don't deserve it; Meryl Streep was amazing, as usual, in Doubt, the little-known Melissa Leo gave a star turn in the indie film Frozen River, and Anne Hathaway was getting high praise for Rachel Getting Married. (I must admit I know nothing about Angelina Jolie's performance in Changeling. I haven't seen it and haven't read any reviews.)
And of course Heath Ledger will win Best Supporting Actor for The Dark Knight. He didn't even need to die to get sympathy votes to win this one; this award was his from the start, hands down. Which brings up the question, who gets the statuette? Well, according to the Academy by-laws, if I remember, in the event of a posthumous award, the actual trophy goes to any husband or wife, and then the firstborn child or something like that. Since Michelle Williams never married Ledger, they're saying the couple's child will take possession from a trust once she turns 18. Anyway, isn't that interesting?
The two categories I am mixed on are Best Actor and Best Supporting Actress. I've seen Milk and I know how great Sean Penn was in that film. Milk is an actor's showcase -- there are many great performances, if you want to call them that; they seemed so natural and good that it seemed like they were not even performing at all -- and in all that talent, Penn still manages to be the star. Point for Penn. But there's also Mickey Rourke, who, I hear, gives an amazing "comeback" performance that Academy members would love to see recognized at the ceremony Sunday. His winning would definitely make a great story. Rourke may very well deserve it, but so does Penn. A mitigating factor here is that Penn won the award a few years ago for Mystic River, and that fact might push the edge to Rourke. Then again he still seems kinda creepy, but no matter; anyway, the guess here is for Rourke by a nose, but if Penn wins it would not surprise me at all. (By the way, I must mention Richard Jenkins, who was fantastic in his understated role in The Visitor. He too would deserve to win if his name is called.
(By the way, it's my understanding that save for one brief scene, due to some fine CGI effects, the real Brad Pitt does not appear at all in almost the entire first hour of Benjamin Button. But his performance is so lifeless when he's actually on screen anyway that if he does win it will be not only an upset but also a shame.)
As for Supporting Actress, I'm kind of leaning towards Viola Davis, whose two scenes in Doubt proved to change the direction of the story and whose performance is one of those that leap out at you in their honesty. To wit, in an emotional conversation with Meryl Streep's Catholic school principal, Davis' nose is running for about five minutes. Penelope Cruz's turn in Vicky Christina Barcelona, one of Woody Allen's better films in years, also serves to turn the tide of the story, and it too is very emotional. One thing about Woody Allen films: They win Oscars for its cast members. I can think of at least five right away (Diane Keaton for Annie Hall, and supporting awards for Michael Caine, Mira Sorvino and Dianne Wiest, who actually won two for Allen films). Amy Adams was great in Doubt, but there's no way she outshone Streep. It's really close here; anyone can win. My guess is Viola Davis.
In other awards, I think the original screenplay award should probably go to Courtney Hunt for Frozen River, but somehow I think WALL*E will sneak in there. By the way, am I the only one who saw WALL*E that did not think it was as good as everyone thought? I suppose by the grammar in that sentence, the answer would be yes. I will say that Button should win for Makeup and Visual Effects, and that Dark Knight will probably win Cinematography. Beyond that, your guess is as good as mine.
The Best Picture Oscar will go to a film that is not good. The last time the Academy got the Best Picture correct was 1993, when it rightfully awarded the Oscar to Schindler's List. Since then, it has continually misfired. I know it's tough to judge something as unquantifiable as films and acting and whatnot, but you'd think that 15 years would not pass between giving the top honors to the film that truly deserved it. Or even a film that deserved it.
Last year's Best Picture winner -- and I think the Oscars are losing enough relevance that not too many people will remember -- was No Country For Old Men, admittedly a great film, I thought. But the truly best film of last year, the Irish indie/musical Once, wasn't even nominated. The year before that, The Departed won, yet I felt United 93 was even better, and I suspect that of those who have seen Pan's Labyrinth -- I am not one of them yet -- many were probably wondering how that one didn't win. And so on, and so forth.
Now here we are in the year of The Curious Case of Benjamin Button and Slumdog Millionaire, which garnered 13 and 10 nominations respectively. Button is not a good film, but it still deserves some awards. Millionaire is a bad film and deserves nothing. Grouped with them are Milk, which I have seen and is a very good film, and The Reader and Frost/Nixon, neither of which I have seen and I suspect I will probably miss out on them prior to Sunday's ceremony.
Slumdog Millionaire is a rags-to-riches story, in its storytelling and I suppose in its production; it's an Indian film that seems an unlikely choice as any film ever to have picked up a Best Picture nomination. Many people like it, and I'm happy for them. I, for one, thought it sucked. The characters are boring, save for the game show host, who is entertainingly creepy, and possibly the girl, the fate of whom really is interesting only when she has disappeared from the story. I can sort of deal with the story's going back-and-forth between the life story of the kids and the Who Wants To Be A Millionaire? portion, at least as a way of telling the story, but it just seemed a bit cheesy. And the main character's last question is wrapped up a bit too neatly, not in the subject matter but in the way the question was phrased. I suppose you'd have to have seen the film to know what I am talking about, but trust me, it rang completely false. And the inexplicable dance sequence over the closing credits. Ridiculous.
Since Benjamin Button is sort of getting some backlash, what with its copycatted Forrest Gump-ish plotline -- the same guy wrote both screenplays -- it seems like that one won't win. And the other three just don't have the feel about them. So for Best Picture I hereby regretfully declare that Slumdog Millionaire is your winner. And Danny Boyle is almost certainly going to win Best Director, since he won the DIrector's Guild award, and usually when that happens, the same person wins the Oscar.
Let's get the cinches out of the way: Kate Winslet will probably win Best Actress for The Reader, if only because this is already her sixth nomination and she hasn't won yet, and people seemed to like her also in Revolutionary Road (which I have not seen). This is not to say that any of the other nominees don't deserve it; Meryl Streep was amazing, as usual, in Doubt, the little-known Melissa Leo gave a star turn in the indie film Frozen River, and Anne Hathaway was getting high praise for Rachel Getting Married. (I must admit I know nothing about Angelina Jolie's performance in Changeling. I haven't seen it and haven't read any reviews.)
And of course Heath Ledger will win Best Supporting Actor for The Dark Knight. He didn't even need to die to get sympathy votes to win this one; this award was his from the start, hands down. Which brings up the question, who gets the statuette? Well, according to the Academy by-laws, if I remember, in the event of a posthumous award, the actual trophy goes to any husband or wife, and then the firstborn child or something like that. Since Michelle Williams never married Ledger, they're saying the couple's child will take possession from a trust once she turns 18. Anyway, isn't that interesting?
The two categories I am mixed on are Best Actor and Best Supporting Actress. I've seen Milk and I know how great Sean Penn was in that film. Milk is an actor's showcase -- there are many great performances, if you want to call them that; they seemed so natural and good that it seemed like they were not even performing at all -- and in all that talent, Penn still manages to be the star. Point for Penn. But there's also Mickey Rourke, who, I hear, gives an amazing "comeback" performance that Academy members would love to see recognized at the ceremony Sunday. His winning would definitely make a great story. Rourke may very well deserve it, but so does Penn. A mitigating factor here is that Penn won the award a few years ago for Mystic River, and that fact might push the edge to Rourke. Then again he still seems kinda creepy, but no matter; anyway, the guess here is for Rourke by a nose, but if Penn wins it would not surprise me at all. (By the way, I must mention Richard Jenkins, who was fantastic in his understated role in The Visitor. He too would deserve to win if his name is called.
(By the way, it's my understanding that save for one brief scene, due to some fine CGI effects, the real Brad Pitt does not appear at all in almost the entire first hour of Benjamin Button. But his performance is so lifeless when he's actually on screen anyway that if he does win it will be not only an upset but also a shame.)
As for Supporting Actress, I'm kind of leaning towards Viola Davis, whose two scenes in Doubt proved to change the direction of the story and whose performance is one of those that leap out at you in their honesty. To wit, in an emotional conversation with Meryl Streep's Catholic school principal, Davis' nose is running for about five minutes. Penelope Cruz's turn in Vicky Christina Barcelona, one of Woody Allen's better films in years, also serves to turn the tide of the story, and it too is very emotional. One thing about Woody Allen films: They win Oscars for its cast members. I can think of at least five right away (Diane Keaton for Annie Hall, and supporting awards for Michael Caine, Mira Sorvino and Dianne Wiest, who actually won two for Allen films). Amy Adams was great in Doubt, but there's no way she outshone Streep. It's really close here; anyone can win. My guess is Viola Davis.
In other awards, I think the original screenplay award should probably go to Courtney Hunt for Frozen River, but somehow I think WALL*E will sneak in there. By the way, am I the only one who saw WALL*E that did not think it was as good as everyone thought? I suppose by the grammar in that sentence, the answer would be yes. I will say that Button should win for Makeup and Visual Effects, and that Dark Knight will probably win Cinematography. Beyond that, your guess is as good as mine.
