Saturday, February 2, 2008
HERE'S THE THING ABOUT THE SUPER BOWL
We all know the Patriots are going to win, right? How could they not win? It just feels like it's a done deal. Nineteen-and-oh is going to be in the books, right?
But the Giants are a good team. They've particularly done well when they were away from their home stadium. They had a long road winning streak in the regular season and have gone into Tampa, Dallas and Green Bay in the playoffs and come out winners every time. And Eli Manning has erased any doubts I had that he could be a good quarterback.
Super Bowl XLII is going to be a good game. There will be moments, especially early on, when the rumblings begin: Can the Giants actually hold onto this lead and win? (The Giants will have a lead early in the game.) At some point, Tom Brady, with his team trailing, will casually take over and march his offense down the field calmly and coolly and the Pats will have a lead in the second half.
It just feels like the 12-point spread is too high. That of course is not because the oddsmakers are saying New England is that much better. They're just trying to make sure that both sides are bet on equally. I mean, of course that's what they're doing. That's their job. That's how the sportsbooks make money. If the Patriots were made seven-point favorites, more people would bet on them than on the Giants and that could lead to the toppling of some sportsbooks.
In reality, I'd say the Patriots should be about a seven-and-a-half point favorite. A final score of 35-27 sounds about right, doesn't it? So against a 12-point spread, the Giants would cover.
But it's no fun to root on a team you predicted to win while saying to yourself, "As long as they don't cover." That's not fun. So I want to pick the Giants to win. I want to, bad. Just win it outright and give us a Joe-Namath-style upset for all-time.
I just can't though. Faithful readers might remember that I picked New England to win the Super Bowl before the season got underway. I just can't stray from that. I have to remain consistent. I said the Patriots would beat Philadelphia (Philadelphia, really?) 33-21. Now there's a 12-point spread for you. 33-21, huh? Does that sound about right?
Well, I can't predict a push. So I'm going to go ahead and go with a score that's been in my head for a week or so now, and it's going to mean that the Giants will be the winning side in a 12-point-spread bet. Patriots 33, Giants 24. (E.K. Nation has gone 3-1 all-time in Super Bowl bets, losing only last year when the Bears failed to cover the seven-point spread. And E.K. Nation is 2-0 in Super Bowls involving the Patriots. So there we go. Head out to Vegas.)
But the Giants are a good team. They've particularly done well when they were away from their home stadium. They had a long road winning streak in the regular season and have gone into Tampa, Dallas and Green Bay in the playoffs and come out winners every time. And Eli Manning has erased any doubts I had that he could be a good quarterback.
Super Bowl XLII is going to be a good game. There will be moments, especially early on, when the rumblings begin: Can the Giants actually hold onto this lead and win? (The Giants will have a lead early in the game.) At some point, Tom Brady, with his team trailing, will casually take over and march his offense down the field calmly and coolly and the Pats will have a lead in the second half.
It just feels like the 12-point spread is too high. That of course is not because the oddsmakers are saying New England is that much better. They're just trying to make sure that both sides are bet on equally. I mean, of course that's what they're doing. That's their job. That's how the sportsbooks make money. If the Patriots were made seven-point favorites, more people would bet on them than on the Giants and that could lead to the toppling of some sportsbooks.
In reality, I'd say the Patriots should be about a seven-and-a-half point favorite. A final score of 35-27 sounds about right, doesn't it? So against a 12-point spread, the Giants would cover.
But it's no fun to root on a team you predicted to win while saying to yourself, "As long as they don't cover." That's not fun. So I want to pick the Giants to win. I want to, bad. Just win it outright and give us a Joe-Namath-style upset for all-time.
I just can't though. Faithful readers might remember that I picked New England to win the Super Bowl before the season got underway. I just can't stray from that. I have to remain consistent. I said the Patriots would beat Philadelphia (Philadelphia, really?) 33-21. Now there's a 12-point spread for you. 33-21, huh? Does that sound about right?
Well, I can't predict a push. So I'm going to go ahead and go with a score that's been in my head for a week or so now, and it's going to mean that the Giants will be the winning side in a 12-point-spread bet. Patriots 33, Giants 24. (E.K. Nation has gone 3-1 all-time in Super Bowl bets, losing only last year when the Bears failed to cover the seven-point spread. And E.K. Nation is 2-0 in Super Bowls involving the Patriots. So there we go. Head out to Vegas.)
