Friday, January 4, 2008
THE ANNUAL NFL PLAYOFF PREDICTION CATASTROPHE
I'm going to spare you the horror of my pre-season picks for the NFL playoffs. Let's just say that I did have the New England Patriots winning the Super Bowl...against Philly. And Philly wasn't even close to my biggest miss(es). My projected wild-card teams won exactly 19 of their 64 combined games. Yikes. I should do a lot better with the playoffs. I did go 103-71-5 against the spread for the year, so that's something to hang my hat on. Let's see how silly I can get:
• Yes, everyone does love the Jaguars. Me included. They have a spectacular running back tandem in MoJoDrew and the just-now-heralded Fred Taylor. And a few weeks ago they came into Pittsburgh and dominated the Steelers for a while (it did wind up being a 7-point win for Jax). They're going to do it again. David Garrard is not a QB star, but he's dependable enough to keep the offense moving. He doesn't throw interceptions. Meanwhile, the Steelers seem to have lost whatever edge they might have had earlier in the season, and having Willie Parker out for the year isn't helping things at all. Jacksonville is favored on the road by two points. Jacksonville will WIN and COVER, 37-19.
• The Chargers have looked pretty good this year and the Titans never did seem to have a playoff aura about them. San Diego's defense should contain Vince Young when he tries to throw, which he will be doing a lot of once the Chargers get a big first-half lead. And don't think for one second that LaDainian Tomlinson won't get at least two touchdowns. He'll be determined to help S.D. ditch the pain of last year's playoff meltdown. San Diego is favored by nine at home. San Diego will WIN and COVER, 45-10.
NFC Wild-Card Round:
• The spread on the Seahawks-Redskins game is a bit small. Seattle, when it's ready to play, is much better than the streaking Skins. It's hard to go against Matt Hasselbeck at home against a Skins quarterback thrust into action late in the season, no matter how well he has led his team. The Seahawks will be well-rested against a team that had to win on Sunday to even get here. I expect a defensive struggle but the Hawks will grind it out. Seattle is favored by three-and-a-half at home. Seattle will WIN and COVER, 21-10.
• The Buccaneers are under-appreciated. They have a very strong defense, a solid running corps, and a savvy playoff-veteran quarterback (Jeff Garcia) who, like David Garrard in J-Ville, throws few interceptions. Meanwhile, there's Eli Manning in New York, who has yet to show anything resembling real clutch quarterbacking and who will find trouble avoiding interceptions. The Giants' Super Bowl was last week, when they played their hearts out and barely lost to the Patriots. I don't think they'll have much left in the tank. Tampa Bay is favored by three at home. Tampa Bay will WIN and COVER, 27-17.If it goes that way this week, the playoffs will continue as follows: In the AFC, Jacksonville will head to New England and the Chargers will go to Indianapolis, and in the NFC, Dallas would host Tampa Bay and Seattle would go back to Green Bay for another playoff game. The AFC's wild-card round winners have a better chance of winning than the NFC's do. Jacksonville could surprise New England if it snows and the teams are forced to run, but I'm sticking with the Patriots. And the Chargers could exploit Indy's weak run defense, but they'll have to put up a lot of points to take down Peyton and crew. Dallas and Green Bay should dispatch their foes in the divisional round.
In the championship round, I see the Patriots beating Indianapolis without worrying about a hint of revenge for last year's AFC title game, and I'm going to go with Brett Favre and Green Bay over Tony Romo and Dallas. As for the Super Bowl, New England will finish up the year at 19-0 with a decisive 42-13 win versus the Packers.
Now, go to Vegas and do something different with these games and win some money.
AFC Wild-Card Round:
• Yes, everyone does love the Jaguars. Me included. They have a spectacular running back tandem in MoJoDrew and the just-now-heralded Fred Taylor. And a few weeks ago they came into Pittsburgh and dominated the Steelers for a while (it did wind up being a 7-point win for Jax). They're going to do it again. David Garrard is not a QB star, but he's dependable enough to keep the offense moving. He doesn't throw interceptions. Meanwhile, the Steelers seem to have lost whatever edge they might have had earlier in the season, and having Willie Parker out for the year isn't helping things at all. Jacksonville is favored on the road by two points. Jacksonville will WIN and COVER, 37-19.
• The Chargers have looked pretty good this year and the Titans never did seem to have a playoff aura about them. San Diego's defense should contain Vince Young when he tries to throw, which he will be doing a lot of once the Chargers get a big first-half lead. And don't think for one second that LaDainian Tomlinson won't get at least two touchdowns. He'll be determined to help S.D. ditch the pain of last year's playoff meltdown. San Diego is favored by nine at home. San Diego will WIN and COVER, 45-10.
NFC Wild-Card Round:
• The spread on the Seahawks-Redskins game is a bit small. Seattle, when it's ready to play, is much better than the streaking Skins. It's hard to go against Matt Hasselbeck at home against a Skins quarterback thrust into action late in the season, no matter how well he has led his team. The Seahawks will be well-rested against a team that had to win on Sunday to even get here. I expect a defensive struggle but the Hawks will grind it out. Seattle is favored by three-and-a-half at home. Seattle will WIN and COVER, 21-10.
• The Buccaneers are under-appreciated. They have a very strong defense, a solid running corps, and a savvy playoff-veteran quarterback (Jeff Garcia) who, like David Garrard in J-Ville, throws few interceptions. Meanwhile, there's Eli Manning in New York, who has yet to show anything resembling real clutch quarterbacking and who will find trouble avoiding interceptions. The Giants' Super Bowl was last week, when they played their hearts out and barely lost to the Patriots. I don't think they'll have much left in the tank. Tampa Bay is favored by three at home. Tampa Bay will WIN and COVER, 27-17.If it goes that way this week, the playoffs will continue as follows: In the AFC, Jacksonville will head to New England and the Chargers will go to Indianapolis, and in the NFC, Dallas would host Tampa Bay and Seattle would go back to Green Bay for another playoff game. The AFC's wild-card round winners have a better chance of winning than the NFC's do. Jacksonville could surprise New England if it snows and the teams are forced to run, but I'm sticking with the Patriots. And the Chargers could exploit Indy's weak run defense, but they'll have to put up a lot of points to take down Peyton and crew. Dallas and Green Bay should dispatch their foes in the divisional round.
In the championship round, I see the Patriots beating Indianapolis without worrying about a hint of revenge for last year's AFC title game, and I'm going to go with Brett Favre and Green Bay over Tony Romo and Dallas. As for the Super Bowl, New England will finish up the year at 19-0 with a decisive 42-13 win versus the Packers.
Now, go to Vegas and do something different with these games and win some money.
