Wednesday, December 19, 2007
NFL WEEK 16 PICKS
Thirty-two years, 498 regular season games, and 1,865 returns before the team finally got its first TD. That, my friends, is truly amazing. In contrast, both the Miami Dolphins and the New Orleans Saints, in their back-to-back expansion seasons in 1966 and 1967 respectively, got touchdowns on kickoff returns on the very first play in their franchise histories.
Here's Spurlock's run:
Here's another silly stat, picked up courtesy of Tuesday Morning Quarterback: The Patriots have had 21 different players score TDs this year, while the 49ers, Falcons and Chiefs have yet to score 21 TDs total.
One of my favorite things to do is read TMQ and see what kind of chiding Gregg Easterbrook does of ridiculous play-calling by NFL coaches. Here's yet another example, and I'll just quote it word-for-word here:Trailing the awesome Miami Dolphins 16-13, Baltimore had fourth-and-goal on the Miami 1 with a few seconds remaining in regulation. Brian Billick sent in the place-kicking unit, as rookie quarterback Troy Smith showed moxie by pleading with his coach to go for the touchdown and the victory. NFL coaches almost always kick in this situation, sending the game into overtime, even though a fourth-and-goal from the 1 provides a 75 percent chance of victory and overtime is essentially a 50-50 proposition. But if the coach goes for the win and the try fails, he is blamed; whereas if he sends in the field goal unit, then loses in overtime -- as Baltimore did -- players get the blame. As noted by reader Nick Alexandrow of Arlington, Va., CBS announcers lauded Billick for sending in the field goal team and criticized Smith for pleading with his coach to try: That is, they lauded the losing strategy. "He's playing the percentages," announcer Kevin Harlan declared. He was doing the reverse of that!
I heard another announcer from some other game say the same thing, that he was kicking because it's playing the percentages. If I recall correctly, it was fourth-and-1 inside the opposition's territory. Again, that's not playing the percentages; it's going against them. It's so disheartening to see not only NFL coaches make stupid decisions but for network announcers to appluad them for it. Aaaaarrrgggghh!!!
THURSDAY NIGHT (team listed first is the pick, home team in caps)
ST. LOUIS (+7.5) over Pittsburgh. I actually had a dream last night that the Rams won this game by 10. And so far I am 6-0 on Thursday games. Translation: Rams win by 10, eh?SATURDAY NIGHT:
Dallas (-10.5) over CAROLINA. After last week, the Cowboys need to win again to lock down home field.SUNDAY MORNING:
Cleveland (-3) over CINCINNATI. The Browns are excellent against the spread lately, and they are fighting for a playoff spot.SUNDAY AFTERNOON:
CHICAGO (+9) over Green Bay. This time of year, it seems the underdogs pull off upsets. Not saying Chicago will win, but the last couple weeks are always difficult to pick. Gotta look more at the dogs this week.
Houston (+7) over INDIANAPOLIS. The Colts have absolutely no reason to play either of their last two games. They have the AFC's #2 seed no matter what happens. The starters will likely rest a bit. The Texans could win this game.
DETROIT (-4.5) over Kansas City. What a great time to play the struggling Chiefs.
BUFFALO (+3) over N.Y. Giants. What's that? The Giants are letting a playoff spot slip away? Well, not exactly, but they are finding it hard to win.
JACKSONVILLE (-13) over Oakland. No Pro-Bowlers on the Jags? Really? This is the week they'll prove at least somebody belonged.
Philadelphia (+3) over NEW ORLEANS. Dear Brian Westbrook: It didn't matter last week, because I wouldn't have won any money anyway, but please, next time you're in the clear, go ahead and score. It might cause me a heart attack if you take a knee at the 1-yard-line again.
Miami (+21.5) over NEW ENGLAND. We just missed a 14-0 vs. 0-14 matchup. The Dolphins hung tough last time these two played. And if the Pats go up by 21, they might rest their starters. (And put them back in when the lead gets back down to 14, natch.) Tough call, but I'll stick with the surging Dolphins (one win in a row!).SUNDAY NIGHT:
ARIZONA (-10) over Atlanta. I started to think the Falcons might play better this week after their coaching debacle last week. Then I realized, as I often do when considering a daunting 10-point spread, that a score of 27-16, while not a blowout, is enough for a cover. Give it to the Cardinals.
SEATTLE (-10) over Baltimore. I don't see the Seahawks stumbling like they did against Carolina, and the Ravens are in a rut.
N.Y. Jets (+8.5) over TENNESSEE. I think this spread is too big for the Titans.
SAN FRANCISCO (+7) over Tampa Bay. It's been a while since I picked against the Niners while saying "It's the 49ers!!!" I think they have the potential to win again.
MINNESOTA (-6.5) over Washington. Really, how long can Todd Collins carry the Skins?MONDAY NIGHT:
SAN DIEGO (-8.5) over Denver. The Chargers have found their groove, and they should take this one, easy.Last Week: A disappointing 8-8, for a record of 87-57-4 this year. Wow, if you'd taken my advice and bet a grand on each game this year, you'd be up almost a public school teacher's salary for the season. Somebody wanna bankroll me? That's a nice stipend.