E.K. NATION

First, a word about the Ravens-Patriots game on Monday night:

A lot of people seem to be saying the Ravens got jobbed late in the fourth quarter with all those crazy penalties, that the refs (and thus the league) had it in for them because they wanted New England to remain undefeated or what have you. There are others who will say that the Ravens did themselves in with those stupid, seemingly endless violations and that worthless time-out that nullified their fourth-down stop of Tom Brady and, in effect, a victory. I'm in the latter camp: Baltimore had it, and they gave it away.

But I say there's another factor involved. With 3:41 remaining and the ball on their own 37-yard line, facing a fourth-and-1, the Ravens punted.

Think about this for a second: They only had to go one more yard. Instead, they decided to give the Patriots the ball.

One more time: They decided to give the Patriots the ball. Call me crazy, but if you're trying to win a game, and you have a chance to keep the ball, wouldn't you want to do that instead?

Count me in with those who agree with ESPN.com columnist Gregg Easterbrook, who is mystified at the number of illogical punts football teams do. In his Tuesday Morning Quarterback column from November 12, he outlined in detail his frustration with ridiculous punts. Here's one passage:

As TMQ endlessly notes, NFL teams convert about 75 percent of fourth-and-1 tries. Yet highly paid professional coaches endlessly send in the punt unit on fourth-and-1, handing a scoring opportunity to the opposition. In the 2006 edition of my annual don't-punt column, I summarized the odds this way: "Nearly three-quarters of fourth-and-1 attempts succeed, while around one-third of possessions result in scores. Think about those fractions. Go for it four times on fourth-and-1: Odds are you will keep the ball three times, and three kept possessions each with a one-third chance of a score results in your team scoring once more than it otherwise would have. Punt the ball on all four fourth-and-1s, and you've given the opponents three additional possessions. (It would have gotten one possession anyway when you missed one of your fourth-and-1s.) Those three extra possessions, divided by the one-third chance to score, give the opponent an extra score."

Easterbrook, in his NFL game notes, likes to say that he writes "Game Over" in his notebook as soon as one team punts when there is absolutely no reason for them to do so, particularly on fourth-and-short inside the opposition territory. He also likes to speculate as to how many plays it will take the punt-receiving team to march back to where the original punting line of scrimmage was. When the Ravens punted on fourth-and-1, I guessed it would take the Pats three plays to get back to within the Ravens' 40. While everyone else at the bar who heard me decry the punt wondered aloud why anyone would suggest that Baltimore try to retain possession by going for it, it took the Pats five plays to get back to within the Ravens' 41. Sure enough, New England scored a touchdown a few plays later, and suddenly they were 12-0, and the Ravens, who were poised to become the first team to beat New England this year, were left with about 45 seconds to do something, which they did not.

Follow me here for a minute: Why shouldn't Baltimore have gone for it on fourth down? If the Ravens go for the first down and miss, then they wind up giving the Patriots the ball back anyway. Yes, they would give the Patriots great field position with which to hammer out a game-winning TD, but these are the Patriots. You think they have trouble scoring from anywhere on the field? If the Ravens have the ball, the Patriots can't score. And as the stats indicate, three times out of four, an NFL team that goes for it on fourth-and-1 will succeed, and thus keep the ball.

I'm going to quote another long passage from Easterbrook's column because I don't want to make anyone go through a very long essay to find it. He details 14 "high-profile fourth-down tries" in football from that previous weekend. I think he makes a great case for not punting. What do you think?:

The decisive snap of Illinois' upset of No. 1 Ohio State on Saturday came when the Illini, leading 28-21 with six minutes remaining, went for it on fourth-and-1 in their own territory. Sports radio generally called this a huge gamble. Actually, it was playing the percentages; Illinois converted and held the ball for the remainder of the game. Had Illinois boomed a punt, the Buckeyes would have been in business. On Sunday, while trailing at Washington, Philadelphia went for it on fourth-and-1 in its own territory in the second half -- Fox television announcer Daryl Johnston called this "a huge gamble!" It was playing the percentages; the Eagles converted, and they scored a touchdown on the possession, igniting a comeback. Trailing 10-2, Buffalo went for it on fourth-and-1 from the Dolphins' 24 in the fourth quarter: a conversion, followed by a touchdown on the possession, keyed the Bills' comeback. Leading defending champion Indianapolis 16-0, San Diego went for it on fourth-and-2 at the Indianapolis 37, converted and scored a touchdown on the possession, going on to win by two points. Three times Jacksonville went for it on fourth-and-short in Tennessee territory, all three times converting and going on to score touchdowns; the Titans went for it on fourth-and-short twice in return, once failing and once scoring a touchdown...Green Bay went for it twice on fourth-and-short in Minnesota territory, both times scoring on the possession -- but Minnesota punted from the Green Bay 42. Carolina went for it on fourth-and-1 from the Atlanta 20, and the play reached the Falcons' 2 before the Panthers' runner fumbled. Yes, New Orleans failed on a fourth-and-1 attempt in its own territory and went on to lose, and San Francisco failed on a fourth-and-1 on the Seattle 2-yard line when trailing big. But of the high-profile fourth-down tries in the NFL and in the Illinois-Ohio State game this past weekend, 10 were a total success, one a qualified success and three a failure. Not too shabby, compared with passively punting the ball.

No, not shabby at all. Again: If they don't have the ball, they can't score on you (unless it's a safety, but you know what I mean). Stop punting!!!

Ed.: Aha! Check this out, from Easterbrook's TMQ column from Monday, which I had not seen until just now (a few hours after this post was entered):

Yes, it would have taken moxie to go for it on fourth-and-1 from your own 37 with 3:41 remaining, but one single yard here would have won the game -- and the blame-shifting strategy Baltimore coaches chose instead lost the game.

Easterbook suggests often that coaches order punts in situations such as fourth-and-1 from midfield or maybe a few yards inside their own territory in order to shift the blame from the coaches to the players. If the team goes for it and misses, the coaches get blamed. If the team punts, the players get the blame. I agree with Easterbrook here too. NFL teams need to realize that an excess of punts will lead to fewer scores and fewer wins over the long run. On fourth-and-1 from midfield, no punt should be attempted unless the team with the ball is holding onto a lead with little time left and wants to pin the other team back farther. Certainly in the first half, no punt should ever be attempted in that situation, and certainly no punt should be attempted in that situation later in the game if the team with the ball is behind. But that's just me. Prove me wrong.

THURSDAY (team listed first is the pick, home team in caps)

WASHINGTON (-3) over Chicago.

SUNDAY MORNING:

JACKSONVILLE (-10.5) over Carolina.
Dallas (-11) over DETROIT.
BUFFALO (-7) over Miami.
N.Y. Giants (+3) over Philadelphia.
GREEN BAY (-10) over Oakland.
San Diego (-1) over TENNESSEE.
St. Louis (+7) over CINCINNATI.
Tampa Bay (-1) over HOUSTON.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON:

Pittsburgh (+10.5) over NEW ENGLAND.
SEATTLE (-7) over Arizona.
Minnesota (-8) over SAN FRANCISCO.
N.Y. JETS (+3.5) over Cleveland.
DENVER (+6.5) over Kansas City.

SUNDAY NIGHT:

Indianapolis (-9.5) over BALTIMORE.

MONDAY NIGHT:

New Orleans (-4.5) over ATLANTA.

Last Week: 11-5 again, for a record of 68-44-4 this year.