Monday, January 30, 2006
E.K. Nation's Oscar Nomination Supernova
Generally we're pretty good at predicting who will get Oscar nominations. But this year we are going to have to rely solely on buzz, because if there's a movie we have seen this year with any potential nominees, we can't think of it. We've been to, maybe, three movies this year, and none since the summer. Then again, I guess one could do all the predicting in the world without having seen any movies anyway. Anyway, on with it...
SUPPORTING ACTOR: George Clooney, Syriana; Clifton Collins Jr., Capote; Matt Dillon, Crash; Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man; Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain. We think it's time the Academy honored Matt Dillon for a strong performance (this one we have seen). Same for Clooney, whose we have not seen. Gyllenhaal might not be nominated here if only because the Academy could think his was a lead role. Giamatti will finally get the richly-deserved nom he should have had maybe three years running. As for Collins? Complete guess. E.K. NATION'S EARLY FAVORITE TO WIN: Matt Dillon.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Sandra Bullock, Crash; Catherine Keener, Capote; Thandie Newton, Crash; Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener; Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain. The longshot here is Bullock, but maybe voters will think she finally got to chew some scenery for a change. She and Newton are two of a million possible nominees from Crash and frankly, we didn't want to miss any of them. E.K. NATION'S EARLY FAVORITE TO WIN: Rachel Weisz.
ACTRESS: Felicity Huffman, Transamerica; Keira Knightley, Pride & Prejudice, Charlize Theron, North Country; Reese Witherspoon, Walk The Line; Ziyi Zhang, Memoirs of a Geisha. This one's going to go to Witherspoon, if only because Huffman's film did not get the wide release Walk The Line did; otherwise, the desperate housewife might take it. E.K. NATION'S EARLY GUARANTEE TO WIN: Reese Witherspoon.
ACTOR: Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote; Terrence Howard, Hustle and Flow; Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain; Joaquin Phoenix, Walk The Line; David Strathairn, Good Night and Good Luck. We'd like to think Howard will get one nomination in a very strong year, but the Oscar voting procedure is so screwy (we don't have the time to explain certain intricacies here) that he might get left out altogether. That would be a shame. Phoenix would win if the categories were split into musical/comedy and drama like at the Golden Globes, but that's, as they say, neither here nor there, and we don't know what that saying means. This year, Hoffman has the plum role, a role that finally makes him a bonafide Hollywood star. E.K. NATION'S EARLY FAVORITE TO WIN: Philip Seymour Hoffman.
DIRECTOR: Woody Allen, Match Point; Paul Haggis, Crash; Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain; James Mangold, Walk The Line; Steven Spielberg, Munich. Allen and Spielberg, because the Academy loves them. Haggis, because of the great ensemble cast he had to organize, Mangold because of the bio-pic angle, and Lee because, well, he is going to win. E.K. NATION'S EARLY GUARANTEE TO WIN: Ang Lee.
PICTURE: Brokeback Mountain, Crash, Good Night and Good Luck, Munich, Walk The Line. Racists, TV people, terrorists, and musicians always lose to gay cowboys. We know this. E.K. NATION'S EARLY GUARANTEE TO WIN: Brokeback Mountain.
Last year we got 25 of 30 nominations correct, including all ten of the supporting acting nominees. This year seems to be a bit harder to predict. But who the hell knows? We thought Indianapolis and Atlanta would be in the Super Bowl this year. We're idiots.
We'll return tomorrow with a recap of who got nominated (the announcements are in less than seven hours, for cryin' out loud; that's just so Brokeback!).
SUPPORTING ACTOR: George Clooney, Syriana; Clifton Collins Jr., Capote; Matt Dillon, Crash; Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man; Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain. We think it's time the Academy honored Matt Dillon for a strong performance (this one we have seen). Same for Clooney, whose we have not seen. Gyllenhaal might not be nominated here if only because the Academy could think his was a lead role. Giamatti will finally get the richly-deserved nom he should have had maybe three years running. As for Collins? Complete guess. E.K. NATION'S EARLY FAVORITE TO WIN: Matt Dillon.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Sandra Bullock, Crash; Catherine Keener, Capote; Thandie Newton, Crash; Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener; Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain. The longshot here is Bullock, but maybe voters will think she finally got to chew some scenery for a change. She and Newton are two of a million possible nominees from Crash and frankly, we didn't want to miss any of them. E.K. NATION'S EARLY FAVORITE TO WIN: Rachel Weisz.
ACTRESS: Felicity Huffman, Transamerica; Keira Knightley, Pride & Prejudice, Charlize Theron, North Country; Reese Witherspoon, Walk The Line; Ziyi Zhang, Memoirs of a Geisha. This one's going to go to Witherspoon, if only because Huffman's film did not get the wide release Walk The Line did; otherwise, the desperate housewife might take it. E.K. NATION'S EARLY GUARANTEE TO WIN: Reese Witherspoon.
ACTOR: Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote; Terrence Howard, Hustle and Flow; Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain; Joaquin Phoenix, Walk The Line; David Strathairn, Good Night and Good Luck. We'd like to think Howard will get one nomination in a very strong year, but the Oscar voting procedure is so screwy (we don't have the time to explain certain intricacies here) that he might get left out altogether. That would be a shame. Phoenix would win if the categories were split into musical/comedy and drama like at the Golden Globes, but that's, as they say, neither here nor there, and we don't know what that saying means. This year, Hoffman has the plum role, a role that finally makes him a bonafide Hollywood star. E.K. NATION'S EARLY FAVORITE TO WIN: Philip Seymour Hoffman.
DIRECTOR: Woody Allen, Match Point; Paul Haggis, Crash; Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain; James Mangold, Walk The Line; Steven Spielberg, Munich. Allen and Spielberg, because the Academy loves them. Haggis, because of the great ensemble cast he had to organize, Mangold because of the bio-pic angle, and Lee because, well, he is going to win. E.K. NATION'S EARLY GUARANTEE TO WIN: Ang Lee.
PICTURE: Brokeback Mountain, Crash, Good Night and Good Luck, Munich, Walk The Line. Racists, TV people, terrorists, and musicians always lose to gay cowboys. We know this. E.K. NATION'S EARLY GUARANTEE TO WIN: Brokeback Mountain.
Last year we got 25 of 30 nominations correct, including all ten of the supporting acting nominees. This year seems to be a bit harder to predict. But who the hell knows? We thought Indianapolis and Atlanta would be in the Super Bowl this year. We're idiots.
We'll return tomorrow with a recap of who got nominated (the announcements are in less than seven hours, for cryin' out loud; that's just so Brokeback!).
