Thursday, July 7, 2005
Bad Beats, Vol. II
And we revisit the continuing misadventures of playing pocket Queens. Raise three times the big blind, one person calls. Flop comes 6-8-4 unsuited. Caller puts us all-in with another $1,200. We call, and flip over the Queens. Other guy flips over...10-7 unsuited. We know instinctively that a 9 will come on the turn or the river. Sure enough, it comes on the river. We wanted him to play badly and lose, not play badly and be rewarded.
However...Here's something you can try next time you play poker. Watch the dealer handle the cards as he reshuffles for a new hand. True story.
The flop on this particular hand was Q-Q-8, or Q-8-8, We're not sure which, but you get the idea. The hand ends before the turn, and we decide try something. We take note of the cards on the flop, and we watch the dealer grab the flop cards, put them on top of the deck and start shuffling. He shuffles three times, and cuts.
Now if he puts the flop cards on top and shuffles three times, the queen and eight cards are probably still near the very top of the deck. And then, if he cuts, those cards are now probably in the very middle of the deck. Fifty-two cards in the deck, and we believe there were seven or eight players at the table, so 14 or 16 cards get dealt to them, meaning the queen and eight cards are probably not going to be flipped over on the board during this hand.
It comes our turn to act, and we look at our cards and find...unbelievably...the Queen of clubs and the 8 of clubs.
We might have been tempted to play the cards, since they were suited, but since we have a good idea there are three cards that can help us but won't be seen on the board, we fold. Sure enough, no Queens or 8's show up on the board--and the club flush wouldn't have happened either--and we give ourselves an imaginary pat on the back for getting an extra edge and saving ourselves some chips. Way to go, us.
However...Here's something you can try next time you play poker. Watch the dealer handle the cards as he reshuffles for a new hand. True story.
The flop on this particular hand was Q-Q-8, or Q-8-8, We're not sure which, but you get the idea. The hand ends before the turn, and we decide try something. We take note of the cards on the flop, and we watch the dealer grab the flop cards, put them on top of the deck and start shuffling. He shuffles three times, and cuts.
Now if he puts the flop cards on top and shuffles three times, the queen and eight cards are probably still near the very top of the deck. And then, if he cuts, those cards are now probably in the very middle of the deck. Fifty-two cards in the deck, and we believe there were seven or eight players at the table, so 14 or 16 cards get dealt to them, meaning the queen and eight cards are probably not going to be flipped over on the board during this hand.
It comes our turn to act, and we look at our cards and find...unbelievably...the Queen of clubs and the 8 of clubs.
We might have been tempted to play the cards, since they were suited, but since we have a good idea there are three cards that can help us but won't be seen on the board, we fold. Sure enough, no Queens or 8's show up on the board--and the club flush wouldn't have happened either--and we give ourselves an imaginary pat on the back for getting an extra edge and saving ourselves some chips. Way to go, us.
