Monday, January 24, 2005
E.K. Nation's Oscar Nomination Prediction Supernova
Again, we here at E.K. Nation admit to being the biggest heterosexual Oscar freaks in the country. We now offer, without having seen most of the films that will be nominated, our predictions for the nominations for 2004, to be announced at 5:30 tomorrow morning. We watch it live every year. We are certifiable. We mean, seriously, serious nuts. We are some nutty nut people who are nuts.
SUPPORTING ACTOR: Thomas Haden Church, Sideways; Morgan Freeman, Million Dollar Baby; Jamie Foxx, Collateral; Clive Owen, Closer; Peter Sarsgaard, Kinsey. Foxx's work in Collateral was exceptional; if he gets two nominations, he should be a guaranteed winner, as is usually the case with twice-nominated actors. And who'd've ever thought Lowell from "Wings" (Church) would ever merit Oscar consideration? Possible sneaker: James Garner got good reviews for a sympathetic performance in The Notebook, but we don't think people remember it enough. Should get in but won't: David Carradine was great in Kill Bill, Vol. 2, but we don't think the Academy will go for all the violence. Same reason Uma Thurman won't be nomiated for lead actress. E.K. Nation's Early Favorite To Win: Morgan Freeman. It's about time the Academy honored the world's greatest living actor.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Cate Blanchett, The Aviator; Laura Linney, Kinsey; Virginia Madsen, Sideways; Sophie Okonedo, Hotel Rwanda; Natalie Portman, Closer. Portman will finally get Academy recognition; she deserved it for The Professional, her first film--she was 12--and Beautiful Girls. Blanchett could become the second actor nominated for playing an Oscar-winner (Robert Downey was the first, for Chaplin). And we think Hotel Rwanda's momentum is building, enough so that Okonedo can slip in here. E.K. Nation's Early Favorite To Win: Very, very tough category to call this year. Just to have a guess out there, we'll say Madsen.
ACTRESS: Annette Bening, Being Julia; Catalina Sandino Moreno, Maria Full of Grace, Imelda Staunton, Vera Drake; Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby; Kate Winslet, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind. The only performance we've seen so far is Winslet's. It's not a particularly stunning year; very few standouts come to mind. Annette Bening received rave reviews a short while back for Being Julia, and we figure that will be enough to get her in. We also figure the Academy loves Million Dollar Baby and 2000's Best Actress Hilary Swank. Other than that we really haven't seen anything. Favorite Who May Miss Out: Closer's Julia Roberts may have been overshadowed by supporting stars Clive Owen and Natalie Portman. It's just as well; we don't want to have to sit through one of her self-righteous, pompous speeches for a long time. But if she is nominated, go ahead and pencil her in instead of Winslet. E.K. Nation's Early Favorite To Win: Annette Bening.
ACTOR: Don Cheadle, Hotel Rwanda; Leonardo diCaprio, The Aviator; Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby; Jamie Foxx, Ray; Paul Giamatti, Sideways. Possible sneaker: Johnny Depp of Finding Neverland is getting great reviews, but he was nominated last year and maybe the Academy will want to honor Cheadle instead. E.K. Nation's Early Favorite To Win: Ray's Jamie Foxx. Haven't actually seen it yet, but we figure that it's a one-man show, he's already won the Golden Globe among other awards, and it would be a fitting tribute to the recently departed Ray Charles.
DIRECTOR: Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby; Mike Nichols, Closer; Alexander Payne, Sideways; Martin Scorsese, The Aviator; Zhang Yimou, House Of Flying Daggers. Favorite Who May Miss Out: Taylor Hackford of Ray. We're thinking Ray is a one-man show of Jamie Foxx; you can't direct an impression like that. And foreign or otherwise obscure films often get noticed here, like Fernando Mereilles for City of God last year. Yimou may be the beneficiary of that trend this year. E.K. Nation's Early Favorite To Win: We suspect the Academy won't go any further in denying Martin Scorsese his long-deserved Oscar, even though it won't be for a brilliant film like Raging Bull or Taxi Driver.
PICTURE: The Aviator, Closer, Million Dollar Baby, Ray, Sideways. Unlike last year, there won't be any weak entries here (see last year's Seabiscuit), even though this didn't seem to be a year where a lot of high-caliber movies made an appearance in even the periphery. E.K. Nation's Early Favorite To Win: We're going with The Aviator. But watch out for Sideways. Or Million Dollar Baby. Or...
SUPPORTING ACTOR: Thomas Haden Church, Sideways; Morgan Freeman, Million Dollar Baby; Jamie Foxx, Collateral; Clive Owen, Closer; Peter Sarsgaard, Kinsey. Foxx's work in Collateral was exceptional; if he gets two nominations, he should be a guaranteed winner, as is usually the case with twice-nominated actors. And who'd've ever thought Lowell from "Wings" (Church) would ever merit Oscar consideration? Possible sneaker: James Garner got good reviews for a sympathetic performance in The Notebook, but we don't think people remember it enough. Should get in but won't: David Carradine was great in Kill Bill, Vol. 2, but we don't think the Academy will go for all the violence. Same reason Uma Thurman won't be nomiated for lead actress. E.K. Nation's Early Favorite To Win: Morgan Freeman. It's about time the Academy honored the world's greatest living actor.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Cate Blanchett, The Aviator; Laura Linney, Kinsey; Virginia Madsen, Sideways; Sophie Okonedo, Hotel Rwanda; Natalie Portman, Closer. Portman will finally get Academy recognition; she deserved it for The Professional, her first film--she was 12--and Beautiful Girls. Blanchett could become the second actor nominated for playing an Oscar-winner (Robert Downey was the first, for Chaplin). And we think Hotel Rwanda's momentum is building, enough so that Okonedo can slip in here. E.K. Nation's Early Favorite To Win: Very, very tough category to call this year. Just to have a guess out there, we'll say Madsen.
ACTRESS: Annette Bening, Being Julia; Catalina Sandino Moreno, Maria Full of Grace, Imelda Staunton, Vera Drake; Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby; Kate Winslet, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind. The only performance we've seen so far is Winslet's. It's not a particularly stunning year; very few standouts come to mind. Annette Bening received rave reviews a short while back for Being Julia, and we figure that will be enough to get her in. We also figure the Academy loves Million Dollar Baby and 2000's Best Actress Hilary Swank. Other than that we really haven't seen anything. Favorite Who May Miss Out: Closer's Julia Roberts may have been overshadowed by supporting stars Clive Owen and Natalie Portman. It's just as well; we don't want to have to sit through one of her self-righteous, pompous speeches for a long time. But if she is nominated, go ahead and pencil her in instead of Winslet. E.K. Nation's Early Favorite To Win: Annette Bening.
ACTOR: Don Cheadle, Hotel Rwanda; Leonardo diCaprio, The Aviator; Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby; Jamie Foxx, Ray; Paul Giamatti, Sideways. Possible sneaker: Johnny Depp of Finding Neverland is getting great reviews, but he was nominated last year and maybe the Academy will want to honor Cheadle instead. E.K. Nation's Early Favorite To Win: Ray's Jamie Foxx. Haven't actually seen it yet, but we figure that it's a one-man show, he's already won the Golden Globe among other awards, and it would be a fitting tribute to the recently departed Ray Charles.
DIRECTOR: Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby; Mike Nichols, Closer; Alexander Payne, Sideways; Martin Scorsese, The Aviator; Zhang Yimou, House Of Flying Daggers. Favorite Who May Miss Out: Taylor Hackford of Ray. We're thinking Ray is a one-man show of Jamie Foxx; you can't direct an impression like that. And foreign or otherwise obscure films often get noticed here, like Fernando Mereilles for City of God last year. Yimou may be the beneficiary of that trend this year. E.K. Nation's Early Favorite To Win: We suspect the Academy won't go any further in denying Martin Scorsese his long-deserved Oscar, even though it won't be for a brilliant film like Raging Bull or Taxi Driver.
PICTURE: The Aviator, Closer, Million Dollar Baby, Ray, Sideways. Unlike last year, there won't be any weak entries here (see last year's Seabiscuit), even though this didn't seem to be a year where a lot of high-caliber movies made an appearance in even the periphery. E.K. Nation's Early Favorite To Win: We're going with The Aviator. But watch out for Sideways. Or Million Dollar Baby. Or...
