Monday, January 26, 2004
E.K. Nation's Academy Award Nomination Prediction Supernova
Since we at E.K. Nation are quite possibly the biggest Oscar freaks of any heterosexual males, this is a fun week for us. We now offer--and don't reserve any Vegas trips; we don't know how bad this will get, especially since we haven't seen most of the moviers we will make mention of here--our predictions as to whose name will be read at the ungodly hour of 5:30 a.m. Pacific time tomorrow...
SUPPORTING ACTOR: Alec Baldwin, The Cooler; Jeff Bridges, Seabiscuit; Benicio del Toro, 21 Grams; Tim Robbins, Mystic River; Ken Watanabe, The Last Samurai. Baldwin and Robbins are respected actors whose work should score them their first acting nominations. Possible sneakers: William H. Macy's charming-but-limited work as an old-time radio announcer in Seabiscuit, even though not really Oscar material, was the best thing about the film. Also, Bill Nighy's aging rock star in Love Actually was a high point, but the film suffers from having just too many damn people in it for one person to get nominated, or for that matter, noticed. Case in point: Hugh Grant, the best thing about Love Actually, has scarcely been mentioned as a possible nominee, which is usually the case every time he's in a film. But he deserves a nod here too. What more does he need to do? Should get in but won't: Bobby Cannavale's funny work in The Station Agent as a lonely but garrulous coffee vendor won't be nominated, even though this category tends to offer more chances for comedic work than the lead role categories. It would be surprising if he were to be nominated while Peter Dinklage got passed up for his lead role. E.K. Nation's Early Favorite To Win: Tim Robbins.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Marcia Gay Harden, Mystic River; Holly Hunter, Thirteen; Scarlett Johannsen, Lost In Translation; Laura Linney, Mystic River; Renee Zellweger, Cold Mountain. Johannsen is actually a lead actress in her film, but the strategy here is to push for her in this category because of a better chance of getting the nomination. And after failing to win the last two years in the lead category, Zellweger enters the Supporting Actress race with a good chance to win. Possible sneaker: Shohreh Aghdashloo, House of Sand and Fog. We're seeing this one tonight; we'll have a better idea why she is being touted as one of the possible five nominees. If she gets in, Hunter is out. Also, Keisha Castle-Hughes of Whale Rider(see below) and In America's Sarah Bolger are possibilities. Should get in but won't: Emma Thompson had one scene in Love Actually in which she spoke no words but her face told the entire story, but same as Nighy, she'll miss out because of the film's being too jumbled and crowded. E.K. Nation's Early Favorite To Win: It's close between Zellweger and Johannsen, but for now, we'll go with Johannsen, who had not just one but two acclaimed films this year Translation and Girl With A Pearl Earring.
ACTRESS: Patricia Clarkson, The Station Agent; Jennifer Connelly, House of Sand and Fog, Diane Keaton, Something's Gotta Give; Charlize Theron, Monster; Naomi Watts, 21 Grams. Clarkson is a risky pick, but it was so good, and we think the Academy will honor her acclaimed film at least once; this category is the best shot. Watts will finally get recognized; we felt she deserved a nod for Mulholland Drive. But this one will belong to Theron, who will win for her stunning work in Monster. Possible sneaker: Uma Thurman is actually getting some support for her work in Kill Bill, Vol. 1, but we wouldn't bet on it. Should get in but won't: Keisha Castle-Hughes deserves a spot here for her work in Whale Rider, especially for the speech she gives near the film's end. Rarely has a youngster put forth such a breathtaking scene. However, younger actors--Hughes is barely a teenager--tend to do well in the supporting categories no matter how large their roles are (see Tatum O'Neal and Anna Paquin), so Newmarket is pushing for Castle-Hughes there instead, where she actually has a bit of a shot. Favorite Who May Miss Out: Cold Mountain's Nicole Kidman has been nominated two years running and won last year, plus her film wasn't as highly-rated as others in this category. E.K. Nation's GUARANTEED Winner: Charlize Theron. Write it down.
ACTOR: Johnny Depp, Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl; Ben Kingsley, House of Sand and Fog; Jude Law, Cold Mountain; Bill Murray, Lost In Translation; Sean Penn,Mystic River. Had Depp played his role straight, like Errol Flynn may have done, Pirates would have been an absolute snooze-fest. Fortunately, he went with a highly-effective drag-queen/Pepe LePew tack, and gave one of the best performances of his career. He's never been nominated for his typically strong work; above all, that may be the one reason he'll get into the top five. Murray will finally get a nomination after his wonderfully understated performance in Rushmore was denied in 1998. Possible sneaker: We're sure American Splendor's Paul Giamatti would get in if he were actually well-known and his film were bigger. Should get in but won't: Peter Dinklage of The Station Agent. One way to put this is, his textured performance makes you forget he's a dwarf. Favorite Who May Miss Out: Like Kidman, the Academy may simply be tired of Master and Commander's Russell Crowe (three noms in the last four years). E.K. Nation's Early Favorite To Win: Sean Penn, who just picked up the Golden Globe for his highly-acclaimed work in Mystic River and was also given rave reviews for 21 Grams.
DIRECTOR: Sofia Coppola, Lost In Translation; Clint Eastwood, Mystic River; Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu, 21 Grams, Peter Jackson, Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King; Anthony Minghella, Cold Mountain. The Academy won't miss out on a chance to nominate a woman director; Coppola would be the third behind Lina Wertmuller and Jane Campion and would comprise half of the first nominated father-daughter directing team with dad Francis. Innaritu is an underdog here but the Academy often brings in an unexpected nomination, such as David Lynch's for Mulholland Drive two years ago. Favorite Who May Miss Out: Peter Weir of Master and Commander. We have a feeling that the battle scenes and technical achievements will overshadow the directing of actors here; that's why we think Cold Mountain's Anthony Minghella will make the cut; his film seems much quieter and more dependent on the actors. E.K. Nation's Early Favorite To Win: That would be Peter Jackson, who didn't win for the first LOTR film and wasn't even nominated last year; this year marks the completion of his huge trilogy project and we think the Academy was simply holding back to give Jackson the accolades when all was said and done with this massive achievement.
PICTURE: Cold Mountain, Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, Master And Commander: The Far Side Of The World, Mystic River, Seabiscuit. The Academy is notorious for skipping highly-acclaimed pictures over crowd favorites or epics and doesn't usually take any chances. That's why such a safe-sounding five nominees predicted here. Lost In Translation will probably be a victim of that. And there is usually a weak nominee (see The Green Mile); hence, we place Seabiscuit in the top five. E.K. Nation's Early Favorite To Win: In any other year, Mystic River might be a lock, but the completion of the LOTR trilogy seems to be the opportunity to crown not only Return of the King but also the previous two films as sort of a group gesture. We'll go with Lord of the Rings: Return of the King.
SUPPORTING ACTOR: Alec Baldwin, The Cooler; Jeff Bridges, Seabiscuit; Benicio del Toro, 21 Grams; Tim Robbins, Mystic River; Ken Watanabe, The Last Samurai. Baldwin and Robbins are respected actors whose work should score them their first acting nominations. Possible sneakers: William H. Macy's charming-but-limited work as an old-time radio announcer in Seabiscuit, even though not really Oscar material, was the best thing about the film. Also, Bill Nighy's aging rock star in Love Actually was a high point, but the film suffers from having just too many damn people in it for one person to get nominated, or for that matter, noticed. Case in point: Hugh Grant, the best thing about Love Actually, has scarcely been mentioned as a possible nominee, which is usually the case every time he's in a film. But he deserves a nod here too. What more does he need to do? Should get in but won't: Bobby Cannavale's funny work in The Station Agent as a lonely but garrulous coffee vendor won't be nominated, even though this category tends to offer more chances for comedic work than the lead role categories. It would be surprising if he were to be nominated while Peter Dinklage got passed up for his lead role. E.K. Nation's Early Favorite To Win: Tim Robbins.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Marcia Gay Harden, Mystic River; Holly Hunter, Thirteen; Scarlett Johannsen, Lost In Translation; Laura Linney, Mystic River; Renee Zellweger, Cold Mountain. Johannsen is actually a lead actress in her film, but the strategy here is to push for her in this category because of a better chance of getting the nomination. And after failing to win the last two years in the lead category, Zellweger enters the Supporting Actress race with a good chance to win. Possible sneaker: Shohreh Aghdashloo, House of Sand and Fog. We're seeing this one tonight; we'll have a better idea why she is being touted as one of the possible five nominees. If she gets in, Hunter is out. Also, Keisha Castle-Hughes of Whale Rider(see below) and In America's Sarah Bolger are possibilities. Should get in but won't: Emma Thompson had one scene in Love Actually in which she spoke no words but her face told the entire story, but same as Nighy, she'll miss out because of the film's being too jumbled and crowded. E.K. Nation's Early Favorite To Win: It's close between Zellweger and Johannsen, but for now, we'll go with Johannsen, who had not just one but two acclaimed films this year Translation and Girl With A Pearl Earring.
ACTRESS: Patricia Clarkson, The Station Agent; Jennifer Connelly, House of Sand and Fog, Diane Keaton, Something's Gotta Give; Charlize Theron, Monster; Naomi Watts, 21 Grams. Clarkson is a risky pick, but it was so good, and we think the Academy will honor her acclaimed film at least once; this category is the best shot. Watts will finally get recognized; we felt she deserved a nod for Mulholland Drive. But this one will belong to Theron, who will win for her stunning work in Monster. Possible sneaker: Uma Thurman is actually getting some support for her work in Kill Bill, Vol. 1, but we wouldn't bet on it. Should get in but won't: Keisha Castle-Hughes deserves a spot here for her work in Whale Rider, especially for the speech she gives near the film's end. Rarely has a youngster put forth such a breathtaking scene. However, younger actors--Hughes is barely a teenager--tend to do well in the supporting categories no matter how large their roles are (see Tatum O'Neal and Anna Paquin), so Newmarket is pushing for Castle-Hughes there instead, where she actually has a bit of a shot. Favorite Who May Miss Out: Cold Mountain's Nicole Kidman has been nominated two years running and won last year, plus her film wasn't as highly-rated as others in this category. E.K. Nation's GUARANTEED Winner: Charlize Theron. Write it down.
ACTOR: Johnny Depp, Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl; Ben Kingsley, House of Sand and Fog; Jude Law, Cold Mountain; Bill Murray, Lost In Translation; Sean Penn,Mystic River. Had Depp played his role straight, like Errol Flynn may have done, Pirates would have been an absolute snooze-fest. Fortunately, he went with a highly-effective drag-queen/Pepe LePew tack, and gave one of the best performances of his career. He's never been nominated for his typically strong work; above all, that may be the one reason he'll get into the top five. Murray will finally get a nomination after his wonderfully understated performance in Rushmore was denied in 1998. Possible sneaker: We're sure American Splendor's Paul Giamatti would get in if he were actually well-known and his film were bigger. Should get in but won't: Peter Dinklage of The Station Agent. One way to put this is, his textured performance makes you forget he's a dwarf. Favorite Who May Miss Out: Like Kidman, the Academy may simply be tired of Master and Commander's Russell Crowe (three noms in the last four years). E.K. Nation's Early Favorite To Win: Sean Penn, who just picked up the Golden Globe for his highly-acclaimed work in Mystic River and was also given rave reviews for 21 Grams.
DIRECTOR: Sofia Coppola, Lost In Translation; Clint Eastwood, Mystic River; Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu, 21 Grams, Peter Jackson, Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King; Anthony Minghella, Cold Mountain. The Academy won't miss out on a chance to nominate a woman director; Coppola would be the third behind Lina Wertmuller and Jane Campion and would comprise half of the first nominated father-daughter directing team with dad Francis. Innaritu is an underdog here but the Academy often brings in an unexpected nomination, such as David Lynch's for Mulholland Drive two years ago. Favorite Who May Miss Out: Peter Weir of Master and Commander. We have a feeling that the battle scenes and technical achievements will overshadow the directing of actors here; that's why we think Cold Mountain's Anthony Minghella will make the cut; his film seems much quieter and more dependent on the actors. E.K. Nation's Early Favorite To Win: That would be Peter Jackson, who didn't win for the first LOTR film and wasn't even nominated last year; this year marks the completion of his huge trilogy project and we think the Academy was simply holding back to give Jackson the accolades when all was said and done with this massive achievement.
PICTURE: Cold Mountain, Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, Master And Commander: The Far Side Of The World, Mystic River, Seabiscuit. The Academy is notorious for skipping highly-acclaimed pictures over crowd favorites or epics and doesn't usually take any chances. That's why such a safe-sounding five nominees predicted here. Lost In Translation will probably be a victim of that. And there is usually a weak nominee (see The Green Mile); hence, we place Seabiscuit in the top five. E.K. Nation's Early Favorite To Win: In any other year, Mystic River might be a lock, but the completion of the LOTR trilogy seems to be the opportunity to crown not only Return of the King but also the previous two films as sort of a group gesture. We'll go with Lord of the Rings: Return of the King.
