Wednesday, August 13, 2003
The Wild-Card Race, or The Race For Not-First Place
We've had a change of the guard, in both leagues, as of last night. Boston and Philadelphia have given way to Oakland and Florida respectively. Now, far be it from me to to exalt the virtues of The Race For Not-First Place, but for those of you enraptured by such a dishonest event, these are going to be close. (Never mind what would be happening if the three-division, wild-card set-up never took form. All of you who think the wild-card system is great for baseball have been suckered. Suckered BIG time.)
The only two reasons I am really paying attention to this race is that my pre-season pick to win the World Series, the Red Sox, is out of the playoff picture for now, and because the N.L. wild card team will likely come out of the East Division, meaning that Atlanta won't play it in the first round, therefore the Giants will. Ordinarily, I couldn't ever care less who wins Not-First Place. Not even last year, when my Giants made it and took their fortunes all the way to the Series, forcing me to be conflicted about the whole thing. The baseball gods were pulling a fast one, forcing me to root for a wild-card team in a World Series. In fact, anyone who was rooting for either team was doing so and most people probably didn't feel ripped off. The whole thing just sucks, and it should never have taken shape the way it did. You can't have a fantastic pennant race between two really good teams anymore, unless there are six teams in one league who are all headed for the 100-win plateau. Did anybody think of this? Anyone? Anyway, more on this, again, later, when I have all my Anti-Wild-Card ducks in a row.
Who's Headed For The Playoffs?: Some of this is easy. In the National League, the Braves and Giants have pretty much captured their divisions. Left to fight are the nine teams within 5.5 games for the Un-First Place spot, including the Central-leading Astros. But seriously, even being only that 5.5 games out, if you have seven other teams tied with or ahead of you, like the Expos and Rockies do, it's pretty much over. The wild card spot will be taken by one of the four teams within two games, the Diamondbacks, Phillies, the second-place finisher in the Central--more on this in a moment--and current leader Marlins. Last night Florida got one of those looks-like-it's-our-destiny moments when Ramon Castro hit a walk-off home run to beat L.A. and vault them into second place, but I remember a similar moment Robby Thompson gave the Giants around this time of year in 1993, a year they failed to make the playoffs.
About the N.L. Central: I think the Cubs are going to overtake St. Louis and Houston and capture the division, and here's why: Having Kerry Wood and Mark Prior in the pitching rotation is a major plus, not to mention Carlos Zambrano--who is 5-0 since the All-Star break--shutting out the Astros yesterday in a key game that kept the Cubs within 3.5 games of first. And there is also the schedule. What's left for the Cubs is five more games with Houston, eight more with St. Louis, including a five-game series at the start of September, a three-gamer with L.A. for which they will likely have Wood and Prior going. Then, after September 4, they finish off with games against only the lowly Brewers, Expos, Reds, Mets and Pirates. The little bears should be salivating right now.
So, here are the projected National League Playoff Teams: Atlanta Braves, Chicago Cubs, San Francisco Giants, Philadelphia Phillies (wild card).
The only two reasons I am really paying attention to this race is that my pre-season pick to win the World Series, the Red Sox, is out of the playoff picture for now, and because the N.L. wild card team will likely come out of the East Division, meaning that Atlanta won't play it in the first round, therefore the Giants will. Ordinarily, I couldn't ever care less who wins Not-First Place. Not even last year, when my Giants made it and took their fortunes all the way to the Series, forcing me to be conflicted about the whole thing. The baseball gods were pulling a fast one, forcing me to root for a wild-card team in a World Series. In fact, anyone who was rooting for either team was doing so and most people probably didn't feel ripped off. The whole thing just sucks, and it should never have taken shape the way it did. You can't have a fantastic pennant race between two really good teams anymore, unless there are six teams in one league who are all headed for the 100-win plateau. Did anybody think of this? Anyone? Anyway, more on this, again, later, when I have all my Anti-Wild-Card ducks in a row.
Who's Headed For The Playoffs?: Some of this is easy. In the National League, the Braves and Giants have pretty much captured their divisions. Left to fight are the nine teams within 5.5 games for the Un-First Place spot, including the Central-leading Astros. But seriously, even being only that 5.5 games out, if you have seven other teams tied with or ahead of you, like the Expos and Rockies do, it's pretty much over. The wild card spot will be taken by one of the four teams within two games, the Diamondbacks, Phillies, the second-place finisher in the Central--more on this in a moment--and current leader Marlins. Last night Florida got one of those looks-like-it's-our-destiny moments when Ramon Castro hit a walk-off home run to beat L.A. and vault them into second place, but I remember a similar moment Robby Thompson gave the Giants around this time of year in 1993, a year they failed to make the playoffs.
About the N.L. Central: I think the Cubs are going to overtake St. Louis and Houston and capture the division, and here's why: Having Kerry Wood and Mark Prior in the pitching rotation is a major plus, not to mention Carlos Zambrano--who is 5-0 since the All-Star break--shutting out the Astros yesterday in a key game that kept the Cubs within 3.5 games of first. And there is also the schedule. What's left for the Cubs is five more games with Houston, eight more with St. Louis, including a five-game series at the start of September, a three-gamer with L.A. for which they will likely have Wood and Prior going. Then, after September 4, they finish off with games against only the lowly Brewers, Expos, Reds, Mets and Pirates. The little bears should be salivating right now.
So, here are the projected National League Playoff Teams: Atlanta Braves, Chicago Cubs, San Francisco Giants, Philadelphia Phillies (wild card).
